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With Election Day just three days away, polling data continues to show a tight contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race.
Nationwide polls provide a general sense of voter sentiment, with some recent data suggesting that Trump may have gained a slight edge. However, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk poll released on Friday reveals a deadlock between Harris and Trump in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state with significant electoral votes. The ultimate result, however, will hinge on seven key battleground states that could sway the election.
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Both candidates will make campaign stops on Saturday in North Carolina, one of these critical swing states. Trump plans events in Charlotte, Greensboro, and nearby Salem, Virginia, while Harris will address a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, another battleground state.
Here’s a summary of the latest polling data in this tight race.
Pennsylvania Polls: Harris Leads by a Narrow Margin
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A new poll from The Washington Post shows Harris leading Trump by just one percentage point in Pennsylvania. Among both likely and registered voters, Harris holds 48%, while Trump follows closely with 47%. This statistical tie, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, reflects the intense competition in this key state. The survey, conducted from October 26 to 30 with 1,204 registered voters, also offered respondents the choice of a third-party candidate.
Notably, voter enthusiasm is high, with 20% of respondents reporting they had already cast their ballots, and 73% saying they were certain to vote.
National and Swing State Polls: Harris Holds a Slim Lead
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A recent HarrisX/Forbes poll released on Thursday found Harris leading Trump nationally among likely voters by 49% to 48%. This slight edge also holds across seven battleground states, though the margin has narrowed since a similar poll conducted a week prior, when Harris led by 50% to 46%. Among undecided voters, 10% of likely voters and 16% of registered voters are still making their decisions.
State-by-State Polling Updates
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Michigan: Harris is leading in Michigan, according to a Detroit Free Press poll that surveyed 600 likely voters from October 24 to 28. Harris is ahead with 48%, compared to Trump’s 45%, with a margin of error of ±4 percentage points. The poll also indicated that fewer than 1% of voters remain undecided, a rarity, according to pollster Bernie Porn.
Florida: Trump leads in Florida, based on a poll by Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research. The survey, conducted October 25 to November 1 with 452 likely voters, found Trump ahead by 53% to 46% over Harris, with a margin of error of ±5%. This lead surpasses Trump’s performance in Florida during the 2020 election, where he received 51.2% of the state’s vote.
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Massachusetts: Harris has a substantial lead in Massachusetts, a traditionally blue state. A MassINC Polling Group survey from October 29 to November 1 among 582 likely voters found Harris leading Trump 61% to 31%. This level of support is similar to that received by President Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Understanding Poll Margins
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The margin of error in each poll indicates how closely the results represent the general population. When a candidate's lead falls within this margin, the race is considered a statistical tie, according to Pew Research Center. Many pollsters have refined their methods since the 2016 and 2020 elections, aiming to provide a more accurate reflection of voter preferences.
As Election Day nears, the polls suggest a race that’s too close to call, with both campaigns pushing to secure key swin
g states and undecided voters.
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